ESPN Sunday Night Baseball

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball

The Sox and the Yanks fail to disappoint in a series so far that has had bean balls and players running over each other leading to a player going to the hospital. This is the best rivalry in sports and it does not matter if one of the teams is 13 games up your going to see a good one when these two teams take the field tonight.

The pitching match up is a good one tonight as Pettitte takes on Beckett. In the last three starts Pettitte has the edge in ERA, but its Beckett that has the edge in hits allowed, WHIP and wins as the sox are 3-0 in his last three starts. Pettitte’s road ERA is lower than in any situation and has only allowed 10 runs in his last six starts. Beckett’s ERA is highest at home and in his last two games against the Yankees in Fenway he has allowed 13 earned.




Over 9.5 -105

Starting pitching is hittable in this game and the over is the play I am taking tonight. The over is 7-3 in Pettitte’s start against the Sox and 4-0 in his last four against the sox overall and 2-0 in his last two starts at Fenway.

For Beckett the over has hit in three of his last four overall and four of his last five starts against the Yankees to include 2-0 at Fenway. With that being said there is a good chance you will see the bullpen in action tonight which is good for the over as both pens have inflated ERA’s in the last three appearances and have been used quite often.

Guccione is behind the plate for this one tonight and the over is 7-5 on the year when he works. The over has cashed in 2 of his last 3 games and when working a Yankees game the over is 7-2-1 in his last ten and 3-1-1 in his last five games that Pettitte has started. Finally the over is 3-1 in the last four games he has worked with the Red Sox.

Trends:
Over is 22-5-1 in Yankees last 28 games as an underdog
Over is 28-9-2 in Yankees last 39 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 16-6-2 in Yankees last 24 vs. American League East
Over is 23-9-1 in Yankees last 33 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
Over is 14-5-1 in Pettitte's last 20 starts with 4 days of rest
Over is 5-2-1 in Pettitte's last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5
Over is 5-2 in Pettitte's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
Over is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5
Over is 13-3-1 in Beckett's last 17 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5
Over is 13-3-1 in Beckett's last 17 starts as a home favorite
Over is 18-5-1 in Beckett's last 24 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game
Over is 16-5-1 in Beckett's last 22 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game
Over is 25-8 in the last 33 meetings in Boston
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings
Over is 14-2-2 in Guccione's last 18 games behind home plate vs. New York
Over is 12-5 in Guccione's last 17 games behind home plate vs. Boston
Over is 25-12-2 in Guccione's last 39 games behind home plate

When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing on Sunday - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent - Coming off a day game the over is 11-3-1

When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 3 years - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent the over is 27-18

Yankees +140

It is a mortal sin to be a diehard fan of the Sox and bet on the Yankees but you have to do what you have to do and I believe that the Bronx bombers have the edge in this one, mainly because the Yankees have Beckett’s number. The shift in the line up if they make Damon play first will be a boost to the lineup and will allow them to be more flexible.

When NY YANKEES team played as a Road team - Coming off vs. American League opponent - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher - Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series they are 22-14

When NY YANKEES team played as a Road team - Vs AL Conference - Coming off vs. American League opponent - Coming off a Road loss - Coming off a 5 Game Road Trip they are 16-4

When NY YANKEES team played as a Road team - During a night game - Before a non division game - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog they are 41-24

When BOSTON team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite - After a division game - Vs. Left handed pitchers they are 4-9

When PETTITTE ANDY 's Team played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 9.5 and 10.0 they are 31-14


Predicted Final: Yankees 9 Boston 5