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Friday, June 15, 2007

MLB Friday Night HUGE Card!

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Split the afternoon game which is fine and moving on to the best slate of the interleague season.

There are several games that jump out at me and I am raising the stakes for tonight and taking a big shot. I will post, write ups and post them as I finish them to get them out as soon as possible. I will post umpire info as soon as it becomes available which may lead to some late total releases.

SF +133 (Triple Play)

This is the Red Sox being over valued by the books and the bettors when the Giants are the play tonight. The Sox are hurting dropping the last 2 out of 3 with the best pitchers on the hill and they are supposed to rebound with the worst starter in the rotation? The giants took 2 out of 3 from a quality Blue jay team and Bonds will be excited to see his first game in Fenway and will go deep tonight.

For as disappointing as Zito has been this year for the Giants his numbers crush Tavarez in the last three appearances. The bullpen of the Giants has been dominant lately posting an ERA just over 1 in the last three outings.


Pirates +112 (Single Play)

The bucs have played very well of late and just took two out of three from the rangers showing they can put up runs when they need to. Maholm goes for the Bucs and he pitched well against the White Sox already once this year and that is no surprise because the White Sox just hit .214 against lefties this year. Garland has several good starts with not much to show for it as they fail to give him run support. The bullpen has an ERA over 7 in the last three go around and the Buc offense is on fire right now.

When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - During a night game - Coming off a series win - Coming off a 1 game loss they are 14-7

When PITTSBURGH team played as a Home team - During a night game - Playing on Friday - Coming off a series win - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series they are 7-3

When CHI WHITE SOX team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a 2 game over - Coming off a day game they are 4-14


Play Against
Any team (CHI WHITE SOX)
with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (NL)

156-97 since 1997.
61.7% (57.5 units)


Baltimore -147 & Baltimore -1.5 +145 (Single Play)

This game easily would have made a double play if not for the high price tag.

This just sneaks in under my -150 threshold and I will take them on the run line as well. The o’s are going to tee off on the snakes tonight. Its rare that I bet on a team that has lost five straight but the D-backs have lost three straight and a streak is a streak. The Snakes struggle against lefties hitting .230 on the season and just .219 on the road. Bedard is starting to regain his form he had that made him an ace for this team and they will jump on Owings early and Bedard will pitch a gem. If you want to save juice stay off Halladay and get on Bedard.

When BALTIMORE team played as a Home team - During a night game - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent - Coming off a Home loss they are 11-5

When ARIZONA team played as a Road team - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - 1st game of a series - Scored 1 or less runs FOR in their last game - Coming off a series loss they are 4-10

When ARIZONA team played as a Road team - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - During a night game - Coming off a series loss - Coming off a day game they are 2-10


When ARIZONA team played as a Road team - After a non conference game - Coming off vs. American League opponent - Coming off a Road loss - Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent they are 3-7

PASS

I am passing on all three of the following:

1) Jays—obviously too much chalk and the Jays had some traveling to do. Can’t say I would take the Nats here but off the jays.
2) Mets—really, really, really want to take the Mets over the Rocket who will not fare as well against this line up in my eyes but man betting against that streak is tough.
3) Cleveland—The tribe should take this game easily and I considered the run line but there are better plays out there I could not pass up and there was no need to add to my card.

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