Thursday MLB

Just looking quickly at the early games the question is who is brave enough to take a dog on this laundry list as high lines are the norm for the afternoon. They range from -150 and go well over 2-1 for some of the games. They key is to see if there is a worthy dog that is barking today.


KC Vs Cleveland

Line: Cle -250 / 10U20

This dog has to have a little bit of a bite after all they beat the tribe yesterday, kept it to a one run game the night before and Perez beat Carmona on the 22nd of last month. Those who know my baseball philosophy know that I often go against the winner in a rematch and in this case that would be a play on the tribe, but not today. In fact I am going to pass on the side but anyone who takes a shot with KC is not making such a bad investment in my opinion. Mainly because the tribe can’t hit lefties well and this little gem right here:

Play AgainstAny team (CLEVELAND)average hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a below avg starting pitcher (ERA=5.70 to 6.20)-AL, playing on Thursday37-24 since 1997.60.7% (25.2 units)



I am sticking with the total here. Under 10-120

As mentioned the tribe cannot hit lefties well and Carmona has pitched well against everyone but Detroit this year. The bullpens are playing very solid in this series but I am chalking up these selections to trends and the man behind the plate. The under is 8-1 in the last nine with the Royals to include 4 straight.

Tschida gets the call for this afternoon game and this year the under is 8-4 when he works. The under is 5-2-1 in his last eight games overall. The under is 8-1-1 in his last ten working with the Royals to include 6-0 in the last 6.The under has hit in 5 of his last 6 with the tribe and with the starters going today it should happen again.

When CLEVELAND team played as a Home team - Vs AL Conference - Before a non division game - Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite - Allowed 4 runs AGAINST in their last game the under is 9-1

When KANSAS CITY team played as a Road team - Playing on Thursday - Vs Division Opponent - Scored 4 or more runs FOR in their last game - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher the under is 11-4

TB Vs. Toronto

Line: Toronto -220 / 9O25

In the second game in the AL we have another big dog trying to go for the upset. The problem is it looks like they may have to look elsewhere for a live dog.

Toronto -1.5 -110

Taking the run line to avoid eating the big chalk but I really like this one as it looks like the Jays are primed for a win. A.J. goes for the Jays and with the exception of bad day numbers he is solid from top to bottom. He has yet to allow over 3 runs against Tampa in his last eight starts and is 3-1 at home with an impressive list of statistics. The Rays counter with Jackson who is having an awful year and the Rays have lost 9 of his last ten starts and he is 0-1 in day games (ERA over 5) and 0-3 on the road (ERA over 6) The key here is the bullpens. The Jays have an ERA of .070 in the last three appearances. Compare that to the over 8 the Rays are sporting and the Jays have the edge in every pitching category today and will get the runs off Jackson to run away with this one.

When TAMPA BAY team played as a Road team - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Before a non division game - Scored 6 or more runs FOR in their last game - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent they are 2-12

When TAMPA BAY team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off vs. American League opponent - Coming off a night game - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent they are 9-36

Play OnHome teams (TORONTO)with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts99-54 over the last 5 seasons.64.7% (41.4 units)

I like the under in this game as well, but will stick with the side.


Pittsburgh Vs Washington
Line: Pittsburgh -140 / 8-

Washington +130

The high price on Pittsburgh today is all about Snell but this isn’t a good spot for him. He faces Chico who is 3-0 at home and 1-0 in day games. The Bucs don’t have a history against Chico which gives him the edge, Snell has faced the Nats but he was touched for four earned and he I just 1-3 in day games. Once the get Snell out of there they have the edge in bullpen work and then there are the trends.

Play AgainstAny team (PITTSBURGH)with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season-NL380-270 since 1997.58.5% (110.1 units)

When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team - During the month of June - During a day game - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a night game they are 11-1

When PITTSBURGH team played as a Road team - Vs. Left handed pitchers - After a non division game - Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent - Coming off a night game they are 3-14

Houston Vs Colorado
Line: Houston -151 / 9.5U20

I am going to be passing on this one. Like the Astros but the day numbers of Oswalt combined with the pen’s huge ERA scared me off and liked the under umpire behind the plate but the numbers I mentioned above and Fogg’s home numbers kept me off it. With the under trends and the wind possibly helping out I may post a play on this closer to game time, but for now it’s a pass.

Boston Vs Oakland
Line: Boston -130 / 8.5 O20

I have made good money fading the sox in the last couple of games and find no need to give it back here by taking a side in this one. For those of you that have been burned on the sox this may be the time to take them but I am passing on the side and playing on the total.

Under 8.5 +100

This is a trend play as well as the fact that both bullpens have been pitching nicely and the starters have good numbers in today’s situation. Kulpa’s numbers this year make him seem like an over umpire (over is 7-4) but the under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 with the sox and 7-1 in his last 8 with Oakland to include 3-0 with Blanton.

When OAKLAND team played as a Home team - After a non division game - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a 2 game under - Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent the under is 12-3

When BOSTON team played as a Road team - During a day game - Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 - Coming off a Road loss - Coming off a 1 run lost the under is 8-2